I call this one Scrunch!
Now on to another three stepper!
Step one.....establish the overall pattern of mid tones. Connect those shapes and move on to step two.
Step two..start moving towards the darkest patterns of value shapes. Fine warm tones for the skin and cooler ones for clearly defined shadow areas.
Step three...make final adjustments. Hit some areas with darker values to make the painting have a stronger value range than the photograph had. It needs to pop or else it will just be another "meh" of a watercolor. It can all fail at this point but that is why there are second chances.